		보도 참고 자료
		보도일시	배 포 시
배포일시	2008. 7. 16일(수)			담당부서	국제금융국 국제금융과
담당과장	국제금융과장 송인창 (2150-4710)			담 당 자	이재완 사무관 (2150-4712)

제목 : Fitch, 우리나라 현 국가신용등급 유지 결정 (A+, 안정적)

□ 7.16일 국제신용평가사 Fitch는 아국의 현행 신용등급(등급 : A+, 등급전망 : 안정적)을 유지키로 결정

ㅇ Fitch는 잠재적인 안보위험과 통일비용을 감안하더라도 재정부문과 대외부문이 건전하기 때문에 현 등급을 유지

ㅇ 현재 미국 쇠고기 수입과 관련한 정치적인 어려움이 신정부의 개혁 정책을 다소 둔화시킬 수도 있지만 국가신용등급에는 영향이 적다(minimal rating implications)고 평가

□ 부문별 주요 평가 내용

ㅇ (재정부문) 9년 연속 통합 재정수지 흑자가 지속될 것으로 전망하면서 건전 재정기조가 유지되고 있음을 강조

ㅇ (외채 부문) Fitch는 대외부문 건전성 기조가 단기외채 증가로 인한 위험을 상쇄시켜 나갈 것으로 평가

- 외환보유액 대비 단기외채 비율이 2008년 66%로, 외환위기 당시의 250%에 비해 크게 낮음을 지적

- 단기외채 증가의 원인도 재정거래나 헷징과 관련된 것으로 10년전 경상수지 적자 보전용으로 활용됐던 단기외채 증가와 근본적으로 다른 것으로 지적

- 또한, 외환위기시 단기외채가 국내은행 위주로 증가했던 것과 달리 현재는 외은 지점 위주로 증가

- Fitch는 한국 유동성 비율(외환보유액과 은행부문 외화자산 대비 채권)이 비교 ‘A' 그룹의 중위수(129%)보다 높은 161% 수준이라고 평가

ㅇ (지정학적 리스크) 6.26일 북한의 핵 프로그램 신고가 비핵화를 향해 한 걸음 나가는 것으로 평가하면서도 향후 6자 회담의 추이를 더 지켜보아야 할 것으로 언급

ㅇ (거시 경제 전망) 고유가, 세계 경기 둔화, 소비자 및 기업 심리 위축 등으로 금년도 성장률은 4%대에 머물지만

- 한국의 다각화된 산업 및 수출 구조로 인해 대외경제 환경 악화에도 불구하고 한국 경제가 외부 충격을 견디어 낼 것으로 전망

기획재정부 대변인

< 참고 1 >  Fitch 보도자료 원문

Fitch Affirms Korea’s Sovereign Rating at ‘A+’ Outlook Stable

Fitch Ratings-Hong Kong/Singapore-16 July 2008: Fitch Ratings has today affirmed the Republic of Korea’s (Korea) Long-term foreign currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at ‘A+’ and its Long-term local currency IDR at ‘AA’. At the same time, the agency has affirmed Korea’s Short-term IDR at ‘F1’ and the Country Ceiling at ‘AA’. The Outlook on the ratings remains Stable.

"Korea’s sovereign ratings continue to balance its credit strengths in terms of fiscal prudence, and the country’s external sector against potential security risks and reunification costs associated with North Korea,"said Ai Ling Ngiam, Director, Asia Sovereigns.

Fitch forecasts a consolidated central government surplus of 1.2% of GDP in 2008, which would be Korea’s ninth successive fiscal surplus, and better than the ‘A’ median deficit of 0.5% of GDP. Korean government debt, however, has been higher than its ‘A’median peer group since 2005 due to the earlier placements of treasury bonds to finance foreign exchange interventions. Nonetheless, the agency recognises that debt attributable to these activities is offset by official reserve assets, which backed up 57.5% of gross general government (GG) debt in 2007. In addition, there are now more concerted efforts by the administration to reduce GG debt to below 33% of GDP by 2012 from the forecasted 36% in 2008. Debt reduction is to be facilitated by ongoing fiscal surpluses, less currency intervention, increased privatisation receipts and the ongoing recovery of public funds injected into banks after the Asian financial crisis.

Korea’s external financial position remains fundamentally sound, and Fitch believes this largely mitigates risks related to a transitory rise in short-term external debt (STXD). The agency notes that the rise in STXD has been mainly attributable to hedging-related and interest arbitrage transactions, which are fundamentally different from the crisis period more than a decade ago when STXD funded a current account deficit. STXD is concentrated in foreign bank branches in Seoul, wherein rollover risk is likely to be limited, compared with domestic banks during the crisis period. Furthermore, STXD stood at 66% of foreign exchange reserves at March 2008, lower than the 250% of foreign exchange reserves recorded at end-June 1997, immediately prior to the Asian crisis. Fitch also forecasts Korea’s liquidity ratio - which measures its foreign reserves plus banks’ foreign assets relative to maturing debt - to register 161%, higher than the ‘A’ median of 129% in 2008. The agency forecasts Korea’s gross external financing requirements, including STXD, will clock 72% of its foreign exchange reserves, better than the ‘A’ median of 113% in 2008, and its gross external debt will rise to 73% of current external receipts in 2008, lower than the ‘A’ median of 90%.

While Korea’s domestic political situation was in flux following controversy over the lifting of the ban on US beef imports, Fitch noted these developments have minimal rating implications, although implementation of the new administration’s structural economic reform programme may be slowed. The agency indicated that North Korea’s declaration of its nuclear programmes on 26 June 2008 was helpful in advancing the disarmament process, but that further delays and periodic interruptions to the six-party talks should be expected.

South Korea’s highly diversified industrial and export base has proven to be resilient over time, albeit cyclical head winds in the form of high oil prices, weakness in global demand and moderating consumer and business sentiment weigh down on immediate growth prospects to around 4% GDP growth in 2008. In the mean time, inflationary pressures have stayed on the upside in Korea during the first six months of the year, the headline CPI inflation rate was 4.3% yoy, above the BOK’s 3.0% ±0.5% target range over 2007-2009.

Fitch's rating definitions and the terms of use of such ratings are available on the agency's public site, www.fitchratings.com. Published ratings, criteria and methodologies are available from this site, at all times. Fitch's code of conduct, confidentiality, conflicts of interest, affiliate firewall, compliance and other relevant policies and procedures are also available from the 'Code of Conduct' section of this site

< 참고 2 >

우리나라의 국가신용등급 변동 추이

	S&P(21등급)	Moody's(21등급)	Fitch (24등급)
투자적격	AAA	Aaa	AAA
	AA+ AA AA-[외환위기前]	Aa1 Aa2 Aa3	AA+ AA AA- [외환위기前]
	A+ A (현재, 05.7.27) A- (02.7.24)	A1 [외환위기前] A2 (현재, 07.7.25) A3	A+ (현재, 05.10.24) A (02.6.27) A-
	BBB+ (01.11.13) BBB (99.11.11) BBB- (99.1.25)	Baa1 Baa2 (99.12.16) Baa3 (99.2.12)	BBB+ (00.3.30) BBB (99.6.24) BBB- (99.1.19)
투자부적격	BB+ (98.2.18) BB BB-	Ba1 (97.12.31) Ba2 Ba3	BB+ (98.2.2) BB BB-
	B+ (97.12.23) B B-	B1 B2 B3	B+ B B- (97.12.23)
	CCC+ CCC CCC-	Caa1 Caa2 Caa3	CCC+ CCC CCC-
	CC	Ca	CC
	D(SD)	C	C
			DDD DD D

* 음영표시는 투자부적격 등급 표시

* 3대 신용평가사의 한국 국가신용등급 전망은 모두 Stable 수준