보도일시	2008. 11. 10(월) 배포시
배포일시	2008. 11. 10(월) 09:30	담당부서	국제금융국 국제금융과
담당과장	송인창(2150-4710)	담 당 자	이재완 사무관(2150-4712)

제목: Fitch社, 우리나라 현 국가신용등급 A+ 유지, 전망(outlook)은 하향 조정

□ 11.10일 국제신용평가사 Fitch는 아국의 현행 신용등급(등급 : A+)을 유지하면서 등급 전망을 기존의 안정적에서 부정적으로 하향 조정

ㅇ 금번 조치는 Fitch社가 세계 경제와 국제금융시장의 위기에 대한 시각을 부정적인 톤(Global Recession)으로 전환*하면서 BBB~A 등급인 17개 신흥 국가를 대상으로 동시에 Review를 실시한 결과임

* Fitch社는 Global Economic Outlook에서 미국, 유로, 일본, 영국 등 선진국 경기가 Recession에 진입하면서, 브릭스 등 이머징 국가도 어려움에 직면하고 있다고 진단

- 선진국 경기 둔화가 이머징 국가에 영향을 미친 결과를 평가하여 17개국 중 4개국(불가리, 카자흐, 헝가리, 루마니아)은 등급이 하향 조정되었고 7개국(한국, 말련, 멕시코, 남아공, 칠레, 헝가리, 러시아)은 등급 전망이 하향 조정되었음

	등급 전망 조정						등급 조정
	한국	말련	멕시코	남아공	칠레	러시아	불가리아	카자흐스탄	헝가리	루마니아
등급	A+	A-	BBB+	BBB+	A	BBB+	BBB⇒BBB-	BBB⇒BBB-	BBB+⇒BBB	BBB⇒BB+
전망	S⇒N	P⇒S	S⇒N	S⇒N	P⇒S	P⇒S	S	N	S⇒N	N

* 긍정적(P ; Positive), 안정적(S ; Stable), 부정적(N ; Negative)

기획재정부 대변인

< 참고 1 >  Fitch 보도자료 원문

Fitch Takes Sovereign Rating Actions on Emerging Markets

Fitch Ratings-10 November 2008-Singapore/London/New York: Fitch Ratings has

today concluded its global review of the sovereign ratings of 17 major investmentgrade emerging market economies (EMEs). The ratings of 13 sovereigns are affirmed, four downgraded and the rating Outlooks on 7 revised.

A full list of rating actions and associated rationales are detailed in accompanying

separate announcements for the Asian, EMEA and LatAm regions, and a special

report, ‘'Rating Review of Emerging Markets’', now available at www.fitchratings.com. Fitch’'s sovereign group will also host a teleconference today

at 15:00 GMT/10:00 EST to discuss the review in further detail (dial-in details follow at the end of this announcement).

The Long-term foreign currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDR) of Bulgaria and

Kazakhstan are downgraded to ‘'BBB- (BBB minus) from ‘'BBB’', with Stable and

Negative Outlooks respectively. Hungary’'s Long-term foreign currency IDR is

downgraded to ‘'BBB’' from ‘'BBB+’' and the Outlook revised to Stable from Negative given the IMF-led rescue package. Romania’'s Long-term foreign currency IDR is downgraded to ‘'BB+’' from ‘'BBB’' with Negative Outlook, as the risk of a severe economic and financial crisis increases.

The rating Outlooks on four –- Korea (‘'A+’'), Mexico (‘'BBB+’'), Russia (‘'BBB+’') and South Africa (‘'BBB+’') –- are revised to Negative from Stable; while the rating

Outlooks on Chile (‘'A’') and Malaysia (‘'A-’' (A minus)) have also been revised to

Stable from Positive. Fitch’'s sovereign rating review of the major investment-grade EMEs focused on the vulnerability and capacity to absorb the shock of recession in the world’'s largest economies, which Fitch now believes will be as long and as deep as the recessions of the early 1980s and 1990s, lower commodity prices and reduced capital and financial market flows. As and when international financial markets stabilise, many emerging market economies (EMEs) will still have to adjust to lower real incomes and investment as well as increase domestic savings.

David Riley, Head of Fitch’'s Global Sovereign Ratings Group, said, “"The profound

shift in the global economic and financial outlook pose significant real economy and

policy challenges for emerging markets. Policymakers in emerging economies have

even less scope for policy errors than their counterparts in so-called ‘'advanced’'

countries, but they are better placed to navigate these challenges than ever before.

Nonetheless, the risks of economic and financial stress that could undermine

sovereign creditworthiness have risen and that is reflected in the prospective rating

actions taken today.”"

Contagion from the global financial crisis in the advanced economies triggered extreme volatility in emerging market asset prices and liquidity strains. In large part due to the impressive speed and scale of the response of the international financial community, notably the US Federal Reserve, ECB and EU as well as the IMF, the risk that the financial market crisis would spiral into a broader economic and sovereign credit crisis has significantly eased.

Moreover, robust sovereign balance sheets and liquidity positions leave EMEs better

placed to navigate extreme volatility in international financial markets and the

reversal of capital flows than has been the case in previous episodes of crisis and

global recession. Nonetheless, while sovereigns have been reducing their recourse to foreign-currency and external borrowing, record international bank and investor

inflows into many EMEs have fuelled large current account deficits, notably in central and eastern Europe, and left banks and corporations domiciled in EMEs with

substantial foreign-currency mismatches and refinancing needs.

Today’'s teleconference will be chaired by David Riley, Global Head of Fitch’'s

Sovereign Ratings Group, who will be joined by Brian Coulton, Head of EMEA

Sovereign Ratings, James McCormack, Head of Asia-Pacific Sovereign Ratings, Ed

Parker, Head of Emerging Europe Sovereign Ratings and Shelly Shetty, Senior

Director, LatAm Sovereign Ratings. A question and answer session with follow an

introductory presentation of around 15 minutes.

Fitch Revises Outlooks on Korea and Malaysia

Fitch Ratings–-Hong Kong–-10 November 2008: Fitch Ratings has today revised Korea’'s rating Outlook to Negative from Stable and the Outlook on Malaysia to Stable from Positive. At the same time, Fitch has affirmed the sovereign ratings with Stable Outlooks for China, Taiwan, and Thailand. India’'s Long-term foreign currency Issuer Default rating (IDR) at ‘'BBB-’' (BBB minus) is also affirmed with a Stable Outlook, and the local currency ‘'BBB-‘'(BBB minus) IDR is affirmed with a Negative Outlook. All ratings are listed at the end of this announcement.

These rating actions follow the conclusion of a global review of the sovereign ratings of 17 major investment-grade emerging market economies conducted in response to the profound deterioration in the global economic and financial outlook.

“"The revision to Korea’'s Outlook reflects concerns that the de-leveraging of the banking system may contribute to an erosion of the sovereign’'s external credit strengths, especially if it were accompanied by central bank interventions in the currency market to support the exchange rate,”" said James McCormack, head of Asia sovereigns at Fitch.

Fitch notes hat the authorities had responded quickly and in a focused manner to the funding distress of the banking system, with a comprehensive package of measures, including a USD30bn foreign-currency swap facility and a USD100bn guarantee programme for new bank debt.

Though potential external financing needs are large - a forecast current account deficit (plus outflows of net FDI) for next year of USD35bn plus short-term and liquid foreign liabilities estimated at USD176bn - external financing and liquidity concerns remain moderate given still sizeable Bank of Korea (BoK) foreign exchange reserves of USD212bn at end-October 2008. The BoK also has access to a USD30bn currency swap arrangement with the US Federal Reserve and

other swap arrangements that are currently being discussed with the People’'s Bank of China and the Bank of Japan. Even so, the fiscal and foreign exchange cost of funding the ‘'de-leveraging’' of the banking system against the backdrop of a sharp slowdown in the economy and deterioration in bank asset quality could erode Korea’'s external credit strengths, especially if the BoK engages

in less targeted foreign exchange intervention.

In revising the Outlook on Malaysia to Stable, Fitch took into account the likely impact on the balance of payments of lower oil and other commodity prices, as well as the deterioration in external demand conditions for electronics exports. Malaysia is one of Asia’'s more open economies and the region’'s only significant net oil exporter. To accompany today’'s global review, the Sovereign group will host a teleconference at 15:00 GMT/ 10:00 EST to discuss the review in further detail. A full list of rating actions and associated

rationales are detailed in a special report, ‘'Rating Review of Emerging Markets’', now available at www.fitchratings.com

South Korea:

Long-term foreign currency IDR: affirmed at 'A+'; Outlook revised to Negative from Stable

Long-term local currency IDR: affirmed at 'AA'; Outlook revised to Negative from Stable

Short-term foreign currency IDR: affirmed at 'F1'

Country Ceiling: affirmed at 'AA'

Malaysia:

Long-term foreign currency IDR: affirmed at 'A-' (A minus); Outlook revised to Stable from

Positive

Long-term local currency IDR: affirmed at 'A+'; Outlook revised to Stable from Positive

Short-term foreign currency IDR: affirmed at 'F2'

Country Ceiling: affirmed at 'A'

China:

Long-term foreign currency IDR: affirmed at 'A+'; Outlook Stable

Long-term local currency IDR: affirmed at 'AA-' (AA minus); Outlook Stable

Short-term foreign currency IDR: affirmed at 'F1'

Country Ceiling: affirmed at 'A+'

Taiwan:

Long-term foreign currency IDR: affirmed at 'A+'; Outlook Stable

Long-term local currency IDR: affirmed at 'AA'; Outlook Stable

Short-term foreign currency IDR: affirmed at 'F1'

Country Ceiling: affirmed at 'AA'

Thailand:

Long-term foreign currency IDR: affirmed at 'BBB+'; Outlook Stable

Long-term local currency IDR: affirmed at 'A'; Outlook Stable

Short-term foreign currency IDR: affirmed at 'F2'

Country Ceiling: affirmed at 'A-'(A minus)

India:

Long-term foreign currency IDR: affirmed at 'BBB-' (BBB minus); Outlook affirmed at Stable

Long-term local currency IDR: affirmed at 'BBB-' (BBB minus); Outlook Negative

Short-term foreign currency IDR: affirmed at ‘'F3’'

Country Ceiling: affirmed at ‘'BBB-’' (BBB minus)

Contacts: James McCormack, Hong Kong, +852 2263 9925/james.mccormack@fitchratings.com

< 참고 2 >  우리나라의 국가신용등급 변동 추이

우리나라의 국가신용등급 변동 추이

	S&P(21등급)	Moody's(21등급)	Fitch (24등급)
투자적격	AAA	Aaa	AAA
	AA+ AA AA-[외환위기前]	Aa1 Aa2 Aa3	AA+ AA AA- [외환위기前]
	A+ A (현재, 05.7.27) A- (02.7.24)	A1 [외환위기前] A2 (현재, 07.7.25) A3	A+ (현재, 05.10.24) A (02.6.27) A-
	BBB+ (01.11.13) BBB (99.11.11) BBB- (99.1.25)	Baa1 Baa2 (99.12.16) Baa3 (99.2.12)	BBB+ (00.3.30) BBB (99.6.24) BBB- (99.1.19)
투자부적격	BB+ (98.2.18) BB BB-	Ba1 (97.12.31) Ba2 Ba3	BB+ (98.2.2) BB BB-
	B+ (97.12.23) B B-	B1 B2 B3	B+ B B- (97.12.23)
	CCC+ CCC CCC-	Caa1 Caa2 Caa3	CCC+ CCC CCC-
	CC	Ca	CC
	D(SD)	C	C
			DDD DD D

* 음영표시는 투자부적격 등급 표시

* 11.9일자로 한국 국가신용등급 전망은 Moody`s, S&P는 모두 Stable 수준이나 Fitch는 Negative로 변경